Sources and assumptions

Realistic operator capture, not theoretical maximum. Revenue lines are modelled as what a depot-based asset actually earns, not what a pure merchant asset optimised solely for the market would earn. Where the literature reports merchant figures, a capture factor is applied and the range stated.

Commercial 2026 UK pricing. Capex uses current commercial installed prices for commodity components and ranges from public deployments for bespoke components. Prices from heavily-grant-funded ZEHID deployments or pre-2024 trial installations are not used as commercial benchmarks without adjustment.

Absence of evidence is a finding. Where the evidence base is thin or missing, the report says so rather than substituting proxies from adjacent sectors without explicit caveats.

---

Reference depot: 30 trucks, ~6,000 sqm usable roof, 750 kVA grid connection, return-to-base 4pm–7pm.

Solar PV: 900 kWp installed at 6.5 sqm/kWp, 980 kWh/kWp annual yield (south of England), 70% self-consumption baseline (range 40–85%), 6p/kWh export. Installed cost £700–£900/kWp.

Battery storage: 1 MW / ~2 MWh reference asset. Installed cost £300–£400/kWh (Allye MAX300 at £99,000 plus installation = ~£350/kWh as named reference). Second-life systems (Connected Energy E-STOR) at lower end.

HGV charging: £20,000–£35,000 per dispensed kW at depot scale. Reference: Kuehne+Nagel East Midlands Gateway (Voltempo HyperCharger, January 2026).

Grid connection: Small upgrade £20,000–£80,000. HV reinforcement £500,000–£2m. 33 kV substation at logistics park scale: £15m (Workshop 1 evidence, East Midlands Gateway). Full capex stack for reference depot: £2.5m–£4m.

Electricity import price: ~25p/kWh commercial supply tariff. Structural floor ~20p/kWh (Workshop 1 energy supplier evidence).

TNUoS: Fixed-band component rose ~64% April 2026 against 2025/26 (NESO published tariffs 2026/27).

DUoS: Red-band window 4pm–7pm most DNO regions, ~8–12x off-peak rate.

Network cost avoidance: £50–£200/kW/yr, midpoint £100/kW/yr. Reference (1 MW battery, 700 kW ASC reduction): ~£70,000/yr.

Flex trading: Merchant benchmark £70,000/MW/yr (Modo Energy 2025 annual average, range £47,000–£88,000). Depot capture factor 15–60%. Realistic depot range £15,000–£45,000/MW/yr.

V2G: Conservative underwriting £400–£800/vehicle/yr. Project Sciurus realised ~£360/vehicle/yr net bill savings (vs modelled £725). No UK haulier has published transacted V2G revenue as of May 2026.

Capacity Market: 2026/27 T-1 clearing price £5/kW/yr (NESO Provisional Auction Report, 5 March 2026). De-rating factor ~0.7. Reference revenue (1 MW): ~£3,500/yr.

DSO local flex: UKPN up to £600/MWh at maximum utilisation; NGED ~£29,000/MW gross (ENA Open Networks 2024). Additional revenue constrained zones: £5,000–£15,000/MW/yr. Outside active zones: zero.

NESO Demand Flexibility Service (2024/25 winter): 5,449.6 MWh accepted, 28 providers, average accepted bid £210/MWh, highest cleared bid £1,290/MWh (18:00–19:00, 8 January 2025). Opens to bidirectional flex, 0.1 MW threshold, zonal procurement from April 2026.

---

Peer-reviewed literature

Seward W, Qadrdan M, Jenkins N. Behind-the-meter battery storage stacking day-ahead wholesale and frequency response services at a UK school. Electric Power Systems Research, 2022.

Martins R, Miles J. UK flexibility services — broadest published service set including CM, frequency response, STOR, BM arbitrage, co-located solar and wind. Energy Policy, 2021.

Mohamed A et al. Distribution-connected BESS in Northern Ireland stacking network support with ancillary services. IEEE Access, 2022.

Nunez Munoz I et al. UK commercial fleet depot model with PV and BESS, testing grid upgrade versus no-upgrade frameworks. Energies, 2023.

Brinkel N et al. Six charging strategies for battery electric buses at three Dutch depots. Transportation Research Part E, 2023.

Blatiak A et al. Commercial EV fleets in Great Britain: optimal trip and charging scheduling. Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks, 2022.

Industry and practitioner

Modo Energy. GB BESS Revenue Index. Monthly.

Cornwall Insight. Flexibility market analysis. Quarterly.

Aurora Energy Research. Battery storage market outlook.

ENA Open Networks. Annual report 2024.

NESO. Demand Flexibility Service operational data, 2024/25 winter.

NESO. Annual Balancing Costs Report 2025.

NESO. Provisional Auction Report, Capacity Market T-1 2026/27, 5 March 2026.

NESO. Published TNUoS tariff data 2026/27.

SMMT. Grid connection wait time documentation.

Policy and regulatory

Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025, Section 18.

Government statement, 11 March 2026 (EV charging hubs as strategically important projects).

Energy Systems Catapult

Business Model Options for Depot-Based Charging. Business Model Options for Public eHGV Charging. Accelerating the Transition — eHGV Scale-Up. eHGV Purchasing Options and Considerations.

Green Finance Institute

Delivering Net Zero — Unlocking Public and Private Capital for Zero Emission Trucks.

Demonstrators

Bus2Grid (OVO Energy, Northumberland Park, 28 BYD ADL Enviro400EVs, 2020–2023). No closeout report with per-bus revenue published.

Project Sciurus (OVO Energy, Indra, Kaluza, 2018–2021). Modelled £725/vehicle/yr. Realised ~£360/vehicle/yr net bill savings.

e4Future (Nissan, EDF, Imperial College, Northern Powergrid, NGESO, University of Warwick, to 2021). Modelled £700–£1,250/vehicle/yr. No audited realised commercial revenue published.

Workshop inputs

12 Pillars of Change Workshop 1 Reference Document, 27 March 2026.

12 Pillars of Change Workshop 1 Enriched Reference Document, 29 March 2026.

Andy Harper (Aegis Energy), "Grid Connections: State of Play." Workshop 2 panel primer, 17 May 2026. Four live tensions section adapts this framing with permission — credit line to be confirmed before publication.

Workshop 2, "Power In", 22 May 2026. Outputs to be incorporated in revision pass.

---

This report draws on evidence and testimony from two 12 Pillars of Change workshops. The grid tensions framing adapts analysis by Andy Harper of Aegis Energy. Pre-publication review is being sought from Andy Harper (grid section) and Neil Durno of Voltempo (charging infrastructure section).

The report is authored by TwentyForty and represents TwentyForty's analysis and positions. It does not represent the views of any workshop panellist, named company, or named individual unless explicitly quoted.

---

Version	Date	Notes
v0.1	19 May 2026	Project created. All five pages drafted. First-cut calculator built.
v0.2	21–22 May 2026	Methods page drafted. Calculator rebuilt as negotiation aid. All pages cut for length.
v0.3	Pending, post 22 May 2026	Revision pass incorporating Workshop 2 operator voices.
v1.0	Target publication	Post-workshop revision complete. Pre-publication reviews incorporated.

---

Numbers marked as estimates or modelled outputs should not be used as investment-grade projections without independent verification.