Making the Numbers Work

The sticker price gap is closing fast. Grant-supported tractor units are leasing at diesel-equivalent rates. Chinese manufacturers are offering chassis that undercut European OEMs by a third. Diesel-to-electric refurbishment is opening a cheaper route in for capital-constrained operators. But the grant structure favours large operators placing volume orders. Over half of UK HGVs sit in fleets of 10 or fewer, and there’s no ring-fencing to protect their access. If SMEs can’t join the transition, it doesn’t happen.

The energy floor is real and it isn’t moving. Delivered power in Northern Europe won’t fall below 20p/kWh. Operators should model on 18-20p as their base case. At those prices, electric trucks are still 15-25% cheaper to run than diesel. But this advantage depends on depot charging. Once public charging exceeds 20% of total energy, the TCO case erodes fast.

Depot power is the binding constraint. Over 100 trials confirmed that virtually no operator has enough grid capacity. Connections cost £5,000 to £5 million and take up to three years. The Depot Charging Scheme still doesn’t cover DNO upgrade costs, which is the single biggest infrastructure expense most operators face.

Insurance and residual values are hidden blockers. Operators report no premium difference, but EV claims inflation runs at 25% versus 10% for general motor, and insurers are writing off repairable vehicles. On residual values, there is no used-market for electric trucks in the UK. Finance providers are pricing blind. A government-backed Residual Value Guarantee has been designed, modelled, and published. It remains unimplemented.

The ownership model is shifting from 5-year replacement cycles to 15-20 year vehicle life. Multiple operators independently described plans to run electric trucks for a decade, refit batteries, and run them for another decade. The bus sector validates this with 14-year warranties and fleets running nine years without a single cell failure. No published study has modelled this scenario for trucks. If it becomes the norm, it changes the finance case, the residual value picture, the OEM business model, and the number of trucks the industry needs to buy.

The biggest risk is that 70% of the industry isn’t paying attention. UK electric HGV registrations sit at roughly 1%, against 4.5% in Germany and 14% in the Netherlands. The commercial case is real and getting stronger. But it only matters if the operators who need to act actually hear it.